The result is out. Brexit has won over Remain. Britain has showed the power of a referendum in its decisive vote to leave the European Union, a decision that will impact not just Britain and Europe, but also the world at large. The polls juggled between ‘Remain’ and ‘Exit’ with a final win of the latter declaring Britain’s separation from the 28 member European Union. Analysts predict that this political upheaval will give birth to considerable economic and political repercussions, declaring the event as one of the most dramatic events since the wars. Leaving the union has not only impacted free Britain, it has sent ripples all over the world, bringing us to our discussion of the week. From quoting their opinion on Brexit’s impact on world economy to the lurking fear of losing democratic values, bloggers all over the world have stepped forward and written about the implications of Brexit.
Immediately after the exit, Britain saw Prime Minister David Cameron, who until the end passionately supported the ‘Remain’ campaign, tender his resignation. As the age old question of European intervention in the British politics finally got an answer, many are now contemplating the meaning of this new found freedom and its after effects. However, its concerns about ceding authority to the Union, a growing intolerance for immigrants and a yearning for its glorious past appear to have been the major force behind its decision in taking a step out from the larger security that it might have enjoyed under EU. Dilip Simeon writes in his blog,
“This was not a vote on the undeniable lack of accountability and transparency of the
European Union. Above all else, it was about immigration, which has become the prism through which millions of people see everyday problems: the lack of affordable housing; the lack of secure jobs; stagnating living standards; strained public services. Young remainers living in major urban centres tend to feel limited hostility towards immigration; it could hardly be more different for older working-class leavers in many northern cities and smaller towns. Indeed, the generational gap is critical to understanding this result. The growing chasm between the generations has only been deepened.”
The world order is changing rapidly. China and Russia are already eyeing the reign of autocracy while fundamentalism is slowly making an entry into the Middle East. EU was the bulwark, much required in the defense of the democratic values. Scattered and separate, Britain can easily be played off by the larger forces, making sure Britain doesn’t rise up to its full potential promised by Brexit supporters. Pete North puts it across correctly, quoting that nothing but a beachhead seems to be established post referendum,
“What goes with the preening narcissism of contemporary left wing politics is the curse of identity politics. And that is what makes Brexit something of a conservative revolution. We have seen how those who voted remain do so because they “identify” as European and also as anti-racist. As asinine and shallow as that is, to condemn your country to a wholly antidemocratic alliance of globalist elites, it is the thoughtlessness that identity politics that is so utterly corrosive to everything it touches.“
While the exit has given a cause for celebration to the Brexit campaigners, the political and economic impact of the exit sinks deep into the world. The pound sliding downwards to a 30 year low and Euro too plummeting in the past few days has already caused losses worth billions of dollars, and sadly this is only the beginning of major corporate upheavals. While EU is a major power on the world map, Britain’s cleaving away might send in some disastrous tremors all over the globe. The road ahead for Britain will be anything but easy, but seen in the larger sense, it can be a prelude to golden days as well, as said by Paul Krugman–
“It seems clear that the European project – the whole effort to promote peace and growing political union through economic integration – is in deep, deep trouble. Brexit is probably just the beginning, as populist/separatist/xenophobic movements gain influence across the continent. Add to this the underlying weakness of the European economy, which is a prime candidate for “secular stagnation” – persistent low-grade depression driven by things like demographic decline that deters investment. Lots of people are now very pessimistic about Europe’s future, and I share their worries.”
Now that it’s out of the EU, Britain may look forward to a future of united and collaborative steps towards a growing market, without external influences. It would be enjoying its sole right to formulate trade and investing policies. On the other hand, owing to lack of liquidity, there might be an impending recession in the coming months, one of the biggest risks of the exit so far. Would the recession hit the entire globe or stay limited to Britain along with Europe is something time will tell. Larry Summers writes,
“As suggested by the fact that stock markets in Italy and Spain are down almost twice as much as in the UK, the prospects for Europe may in some ways be worse than for the UK. There is the real risk of “populist exit contagion” in a number of countries. A credit crunch is a serious risk. Unlike in Britain, the trade weighted exchange rate is unlikely to decline very much. The central bank has less room for incremental policy measures. The effects on the rest of the world will depend heavily on psychology.“
Britain has chosen independence over the security of being a part of the European Union. This was fuelled by people’s need for more jobs, better healthcare and ultimately, more choice. Now that the choice has been made, it can be looked upon as a new beginning that can catapult Britain into a new age. Here’s what Sceptic Isle has to say about it.
“Over a hundred years we saw national self-determination and democracy on the march across the world, why now vote against it? When power is so far removed from the people, anger and disillusionment are inevitable. And democracies die when there is little connection between the electorate and those who rule them. Now, there is a pressing need to shift the balance of power back to the people and restore democratic accountability. It is the only hope for rebuilding faith in politics and quelling our current state of discontentment. To vote to leave the EU is to open up new opportunities for our county.“
Brexit has put a question mark on the status of people of non-British origins living in the United Kingdom. It was evident that the Brexit rhetoric was propped up by negative feelings towards immigrants, their immense contribution to the region notwithstanding. As immigration laws by EU had become liberal, UK had been brimming with silent anger against the scarcity of jobs and housing facilities. Securing the borders has become one of the most crucial issues for the country. which might be on the top in the to do list post its exit from the Union. It is sad to say that perhaps, the nation of the nationals theory is going to be the motto of the conservatives, leaving no space for united integration in the political agenda of the rulers. Tarishi Verma talks about the growing Xenophobia that might be the fuel behind Britain’s exit.
“The Brexit was a cool-aid for this anger. Farage and other supporters of the ‘Leave’ camp propagated their campaign with posters that said “we want our country back” and images of a large number of immigrants trying to enter the country with “Breaking Point – the EU has failed us” – not very different from what Trump is also saying. The fight for the ‘Leave’ supporters thus became against the immigrants or the ‘Others’ and coupled with the anger that was all set to be doused by the Brexit, it won.The ‘rightful claim’ that many native residents of various countries, cities, states, and regions, claim to make is not limited to EU alone. Echoes of this xenophobia or fear of immigration are found in various parts of the world.“
As far as security and intelligence is concerned, Brexit will have a direct impact on Europe’s military system, and might lead the European nations to seek short term dependence for armed forces from the US. Being one of the two nuclear armed forces (the other being France), this audacious divorce between Britain and EU puts Europe at a disadvantage when it comes to security, knowing that this won’t be a good time for this. Although being powerful on the nuclear front doesn’t stave off security challenges for Britain, given that UK’s government has been cutting down military costs as part of the EU. Shaun Riordan blogs,
“A British withdrawal from Europe would also pose serious security challenges to Britain itself. While the special relationship with the US has always been more apparent in London than in Washington, Britain has had a special value for successive US administrations for two reasons: a reliable ally with credible armed forces that can contribute to US-led military operations and an Anglo-Saxon bridge head in the EU. David Cameron’s repeated cuts in defence spending have seriously undermined Britain’s ability to play the first role. Britons may be about to vote themselves out of the second role. Britain would also be placing itself in a slightly anomalous position within NATO, aligning itself with Turkey and Norway as the non-EU members of the alliance.“
The boil over sovereign and immigration has proved to be a tug of war with ethics on one side with economy and European bond on the other. As the Prime Minister chooses to step out of the complex scenario that lies ahead, Britain is in need of a fresh new leader who can take the nation towards a good end with its present situation. Sarah Wollaston writes,
“Our next leader will also need to be someone capable of handling complex negotiations at home as well as with our EU partners. So much of our own legislation is in some way connected with EU directives or regulations that it will be necessary to adopt the majority of them and then take a thoughtful measured approach to repealing or amending them in our best interests. Whilst the most urgent issues can be prioritised, given the timescale for legislation to pass through Parliament, this is likely to take many years and put many other important issues on hold.”
The referendum has proven to be turning point for Britain. The aftermath consists of a serious lesson – immigration overcomes economy. The self interest of the nationals undermines the larger equation between a nation and the outside world. The coming years will see Britain changing completely, and the signs are already visible. Nevertheless, Scotland needs to rethink its referendum, as the Britain it was connected to for years, no longer seems to be the same. Atul Hatwal put light on the issues Brexit might welcome from now onwards,
“Others might not have equated Brexit with economic hardship and simply not believed would be that bad, using the referendum instead as an opportunity to kick their distant masters. Either way, the fundamental political lesson that will be drawn for future campaigns by the main parties will be that immigration trumps the economy. This will make for a very different approach to campaigns in the coming years. British politics is about to become harsher and more right-wing as the Ukip-Vote Leave template is adopted. In parallel, the substance of politics will now become consumed with one issue: disentanglement from the EU. All government policy and activity will be considered through this prism. The time, focus and effort of PM Boris Johnson, his Ministers and Parliament will be sucked into unpicking the ties that bound us to the EU.“
Brexit has sent companies with their foreign investment in the European market into rethink mode and contemplation over their next moves. India, as a growing economy and a global generator of profits might see a change in its relationship with Europe and Britain. Indian Sensex reacted to the exit by dropping 1000 points on D-Day. This might also be a tough time for Indian population residing in Britain as job scarcity, rents and growing population were the backing forces for those who voted an ‘exit’. As the Indian PM supported ‘Remain’, this might be a blow to our country’s involvement with both Europe and Britan. Will Brexit impact India on positive or negative grounds? Charu Sharma tries foreseeing the answer to this.
“UK is the maximum revenue generator source for Indian companies. Maximum of Indian businesses choose to establish their European offices in the UK, to gain the flexible working operations in the UK and to avail the benefits of staying in Europe. Removing this gateway would be problematic for Indian businesses in the UK, who may choose to relocate and direct investment someplace else.”
Brexit has definitely sent the whole world into into a tizzy as we look forward to world politics and economy taking new shape in response to the great exit. As political terrain sees unknown storms coming ahead, democracy and faith in unity seems to go downhill. However condemned Britain’s collaborative decision may be, we look forward to seeing the small island bloom and touch the expectations those who voted an ‘exit’ for were promised. Will this be a turning point in Britain’s history and take it to great heights or will Great Britain stop being Great? We wait for the years to come show us. Tell us your thoughts on Brexit impact in the comments below!